In fact, this is how the program works that I linked earlier (Wink). I had done a quick screencast ages ago with it (requires flash - it’s a swf output):
http://dl.dropbox.com/u/1981942/GIMP-Tutorials/gimp-new-layer.swf
You could indicate how fast the cursor should move, and it’s location was recorded by the software on any interactions (clicks) - it would then interpolate and animate cursor location based on the locations of the last two clicks.
The program at the time did allow you to output to other formats including straight video. Not so sure about it these days as I haven’t even tried to use it in years…