On behalf of the saner parts of my country, I apologize to the world. We’re witnessing Manifest Destiny 2 right now. People laugh at the ideas of taking over Greenland and the Panama canal, or making Canada our 51st state, as if they are just dumb ideas from an idiotic man in mental decline. They are ideas born from the thinking that the United States is inherently better and more deserving than any other nation. But this all feels like the end state of what I’ve observed over my entire lifetime: as the quality of America drops (in terms of education, housing opportunities, quality of life, manufacturing, opportunity, general happiness, etc), the chest-beating and boasting about how great America is increases. We’re not actually great at much besides stroking our own over-inflated ego.
And keeping with the actual topic, the biggest thing I need to think about is getting a new (used) car for my wife. We also have a bunch of stuff I’d love to work on for our house but I expect prices of materials to get pretty bad.
Yes, you’re right. I wrote this badly in haste and am sorry. It was meant as a joke at myself, being one of the geeks, turning a light hearted thread into a personal treatise on trade policy. But I can see that it doesn’t read that way after looking again today. That’s on me. Again, sorry.
Don’t be too hard on yourself though. The tariff issue is now surrounded by so much misinformation that it becoming really difficult for people not trained in economics to spot the gaps with various arguments. And the historical lessons are from more than a century ago, not part of living memory any more.
Hey, I didn’t say I thought the original arguments I presented were wrong!
They aren’t my ideas at all, but those of economists and researchers covering these matters who I’ve read.
To be honest I didn’t have time yesterday to read through what everyone was presenting so shouldn’t have dug in with the second post.
And the comment I was referring to in my apology was terrible loose wording that definitely shouldn’t have been posted.
Now things have calmed down a bit, I will try to read through more carefully the counter arguments and reassess my priors, which is a good outcome.
Thanks
Edit: I’ve got some way in this personal project of updating my beliefs. Still haven’t read the posts above properly yet but have been reading around the critics of Pettis (incl economists Cowen, Krugman and Obstfeld - gulp; incl on Pettis’ side are Council of Foreign Relations’ Setser).
Noah Smith actually has a pretty decent but soooo long breakdown of the debate and plumps for “well, nobody knows” while conceding some points as significant while criticising the major thesis.
Needless to say, I’m less confident of my view than I was. To justify myself for a moment, I came to Pettis mainly for his, I still believe, excellent analysis of the brewing structural problems in China around a decade ago, at a time when I think the main view was that the country was kinda invincible. His analysis has stood the test of time, IMV, as Smith outlines.
Incidentally, can someone recommend a seller of second hand books within the EU that has a large selection of English books? That may be the thing I will miss most from the US.
Jack Daniel’s is usually considered well suited as a mixer. I wouldn’t drink it neat. Plus it has a certain mystique as a biker or roadhouse whiskey, sort of like Pabst Blue Ribbon beer.
You guys keep talking about alcohol, but I Just ordered a Z8 for the cheapest price its ever been; I assume tariffs will kick in soon and that price will skyrocket. Let’s see.
I’m still deciding between a $6 cauliflower or $5.49 box of cherry tomatoes. How many cameras do you have now Mica, and when are you sending me one of them?
I think we paid like $15 USD for half a dozen avocados yesterday
I have the GR III, a Nikon Z7 II (which I will likely be selling now), the incoming Z8, and a Fuji X-T20 that is converted to IR. And some film cameras that are mostly nostalgia now, since film prices are bonkers even before tariffs.
So not too many, I think?
I guess I could get the Z7 II converted to IR and get rid of the Fuji and lens.
